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Impact of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Canada

To determine role of climate in Lyme disease distribution and ecology in Canada, the potential impact of climate change, and assess the Canadian response capacity to impacts of climate change on Lyme disease.

Objective #1:
To collect an inventory of existing Canadian data and literature and conduct an overview of the current distribution of vector ticks and examine possible associations with climate.

Objective #2:
Develop dynamic transmission models for Lyme disease in southern Ontario and in the Fraser delta area of British Columbia using existing data, and to a limited extent, new data. (Additional data on tick populations, range and infectivity may be required to inform the model). The model will include microclimate and macroclimate parameters.

Objective #3:
Develop models of the potential impact of climate change on the disease, based on accepted climate change model scenarios and on the best available regional climate models.

Objective #4:
Assessment of the Canadian response capacity to Lyme disease in context of potential spread and altered transmission dynamics in future, using a risk assessment framework.

Timeline	Start Date: April 2003 End Date: October 2005
Team	Dominique Charron Co-Principal Investigator Foodborne, Waterborne & Zoonotic Infections Division Centre for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Health Canada Christopher J O'Callaghan Co-Principal Investigator Dept of Community Health and Epidemiology Queen's University Nicholas Ogden University of Montreal Muhammad G. Morshed Laboratory Services, BC Centre for Disease Control Ian Barker Department of Pathobiology University of Guelph Robbin Lindsay National Microbiology Laboratory - Zoonoses and Special Pathogens Health Canada Abdel Maarouf Meteorological Services Environment Canada David Waltner-Toews Dept of Population Medicine University of Guelph Karen Smoyer Tomic Climate and Health Research Program, Dept of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of Alberta Peter Buck Foodborne, Waterborne & Zoonotic Infections Division Centre for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Population and Public Health Branch, Health Canada
Funding	Government of Canada’s Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF/AP 2000)
Collaborators	Health Canada University of Guelph Environment Canada with partners at: Universite de Montreal,University of Alberta, Queen’s University, Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre, National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, and B.C. Centre for Disease Control
Publications	Ogden N.H., Barker, I.K., Beauchamp, G., Brazeau, S., Charron, D., Maarouf, A., Morshed, M.G., O'Callaghan, C.J., Thompson, R.A., Waltner-Toews, D., Waltner-Toews, M. & Lindsay, L.R. Investigation of ground level and remote-sensed data for classification of habitats and prediction of survival of Ixodes scapularis ticks in habitats of southeastern Canada. (in press J. Medical Entomology) Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada. N.H. Ogden, A. Maarouf, I.K. Barker, M. Bigras-Poulin, L.R. Lindsay, M.G. Morshed, C.J. O’Callaghan, F. Ramay, D. Waltner-Toews, D.F. Charron. International Journal for Parasitology 36 (2006) 63–70. Ogden, N.H.,Bigras-Poulin, M., O'Callaghan, C.J., Barker, I.K., Lindsay, L.R., Maarouf, A., Smoyer-Tomic, K.E., Waltner-Toews, D. and Charron, D. 2005. A dynamic population model to investigate potential effects of climate change on geographic range and seasonality of the tick Ixodes scapularis. Int. J. Parasitology, 35(4); 375-89. Ogden N.H, Lindsay, L.R., Beauchamp, G., Charron, D., Maarouf, A., O'Callaghan, C.J., Waltner-Toews, D. and Barker, I.K. 2004. Investigation of the relationships between temperature and development rates of the tick Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the laboratory and field J. Med. Entomol. 41(4): 622-633.

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