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GCM-based High Resolution Spatial Temporal Precipitation Scenarios for Western Canada (2002-04)

This project applied synoptic downscaling techniques to develop and evaluate western Canadian precipitation scenarios. Due to the layout of the water basins, all of western North America had to be used for the scenario development, a region greater than initially proposed. It was found that estimates of future synoptic circulation statistics from climate models (CGCM1 and CGCM2 using 2020-2050 12 hour 500 mb) can provide a means of estimating future fall, winter and spring precipitation.

Over 370 meteorological stations across western N. America were used to determine precipitation for 2021-2050. An unexpected, yet successful, outcome was discovering that summer precipitation was driven by the unclassified patterns of the synoptic circulation. It was also found that the monthly values for 2020-2050 have variances that were greater than observed. This is unexpected as models normally underestimate variances. These scenarios have not as yet been compared to those produced by other researchers. However the synoptic downscaling does tend to fit better with historical data, and therefore one may assume that it would be closer on the future events/predictions. It is recommended to hold regular forums to share and discuss scenarios amongst researchers, nationally and internationally.

Outputs of the project were precipitation and variance ratio maps produced for the periods December through February, March through May, June through August and September through November on a 50 km grid for all of western North America. The results were published in one paper, and at least nine various conferences. Training was provided to three M.Sc. students, and three Research Associates.

So far, applications of the results of this project were to make the data available to users on the CCIS (CCSN) scenarios website, and to use results in an oil sands development court case.

The methodology has also been applied to microscale insect work, snow modelling, as well as to forestry cover work. Follow-up of this work is to continue the micro meteorological work and downscaling to larger geographical regions. The Principal Investigator expressed a need for one data coordinating agency that can help to share downscaled and other data collected from these types of projects amongst Impacts and Adaptation researchers and users. This task should be allocated to an existing body, such as CCSN.

Information dated January 31st, 2005 and found here

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