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Home > Projects
Production of Multiple High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios (2005)
This project produced a set of high resolution scenarios using a thin plate smoothing spline technique implemented in a tool called ANUSPLIN. Scenarios were produced for four GCMs (CGCM2, HadCM3, ECHAM4, and CSIRO Mk2) for the A2 and B2 SRES emissions scenarios.
This project produced a set of high resolution scenarios using a thin plate smoothing spline technique implemented in a tool called ANUSPLIN. Scenarios were produced for four GCMs (CGCM2, HadCM3, ECHAM4, and CSIRO Mk2) for the A2 and B2 SRES emissions scenarios. This is slightly different than proposed (2-3 GCMs and 6 emissions scenarios), but provides a quite satisfactory range of possible outcomes. Thirty-year mean fields were produced for a set of 19 bioclimatic variables for 3 future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) and monthly or annual fields were produced for 12 other bioclimatic variables and 6 standard climatic variables. The process to produce scenarios is now relatively routine such that other scenarios can be produced with relatively little effort. The methodology appears to be fundamentally sound and straightforward, resulting in scenarios that are suitable for the targeted application of landscape modelling.
The sheer volume of scenario data produced by this project is impressive considering the minimal budget. Also, the availability of the tools to produce additional scenarios should continue the payoff from this project in the future. The authors were not able to fully automate the process, but that outcome is hardly surprising in view of the complexity of GCMs and the range of climatic conditions that are being modelled. A large number of simulations by many modelling groups are now being completed for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. It is recommended that scenarios be produced for as many of these as practical if internal or external resources can be found.
Although a promised short peer-reviewed article has not yet been prepared, a detailed preprint paper was prepared for the American Meteorological Society's Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference in August 2004. Also, two papers that use the scenarios have been accepted by peer-reviewed journals.
Information dated January 31st, 2005 and found here
| Team | Dan McKenney David Price |
| Funding | $29,300 |
| Collaborators | Natural Resources Canada |